Reports & Analysis

What are the chances of Trump and Biden winning? Forecast markets and tokens respond


Two days after the US election, the winner is still unknown, but the forecast market is still hot and is being pursued in Biden’s favor. In the digital currency forecasting markets, too, few expect Trump to win. In the following, we will take a look at the state of betting in the field of digital currencies, where people have to pay for their predictions.

Dedicated Digital Currency – According to the Augur platform, the largest decentralized forecasting market, Biden has an average chance of winning more than 70%.

What are the chances of Trump and Biden winning?  Forecast markets and tokens respond

If it is a decentralized Ethereum forecasting platform where people can predict the outcome of various events. The advantage of this system over other platforms is that it is decentralized; This means that the control of the system is not in the hands of a particular company and thanks to the distributed mechanisms, the result is determined in a decentralized manner and after determining the result, no one’s right will be lost. To participate in the predictions, people must pay money (ether) and buy the stock of their choice, like buying a token at an exchange. After the results are announced (or before the results are announced, when the result is almost certain), those who made the right predictions will make a good profit, as well as those who made the wrong predictions will suffer losses. The amount of profit and loss depends on when the person enters the market.

At the time of writing, the situation in the agar markets shows that Biden has a 85% chance of winning.

What are the chances of Trump and Biden winning?  Forecast markets and tokens respond
Chances of winning every US election, according to data from the Agar platform – today, November 5

However, yesterday (November 4), after the announcement of the preliminary results that showed Trump in the lead, the predictions in Agar were in Trump’s favor.

What are the chances of Trump and Biden winning?  Forecast markets and tokens respond
Chance of a Candidate to Win US Election According to Agar Platform data yesterday (November 4)

Trump and Biden tokens

What are the chances of Trump and Biden winning?  Forecast markets and tokens respond

Another type of election forecast in the field of digital currencies is the buying and selling of election candidates’ tokens. At FTX, one of the largest trading platforms in the field, individuals can trade tokens (digital currencies), Trump (with the symbol TRUMP) and Biden (with the symbol BIDEN). These tokens are actually a kind of futures contract that will cost $ 0 or $ 1 after the results are announced.

For example, if you buy each Trump token at a price of 0.4 and Trump becomes president, your token will be worth $ 1, which represents a 150% profit. On the other hand, if Trump does not become president, the price of this candidate’s token will go down to zero and you will lose practically all your money.

The price of Trump and Biden tokens can actually show the chances of any candidate to win.

At the time of writing, the price of each Trump token at the FTX exchange is about $ 0.12, which means that Trump has a 12 percent chance of winning. However, yesterday, with the announcement of the preliminary results, the price of the Trump token increased to $ 0.8, which means that people can make a profit by fluctuating before the announcement of the results.

What are the chances of Trump and Biden winning?  Forecast markets and tokens respond
Trump token price chart on FTX platform

Attention: The FTX platform has strict terms and conditions, and due to sanctions, Iranian users are advised to refrain from operating on this platform.

Given the state of the forecast markets, Biden will win the US election, unless something special happens and puts the risk-takers at a few hundred percent profit.

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