In his latest analysis, Bitcoin blockchain analyst Willy Woo points to three reasons why the likelihood of a sharp change in the price of bitcoin in the near future is low.
To Report Coin Telegraph: Despite the astronomical rise in the price of Bitcoin in November, the digital currency has not yet experienced a sharp correction and is going up and down in the range of $ 15,000. According to Willy Woo, an analyst within the Bitcoin chain, for three main reasons, the likelihood of drastic correction is low. These three reasons are: the increase in capital outflows from exchange offices, the increase in the number of long-term investors (hoodlers), and the data showing that investors have already reaped the benefits they want.
Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges
Investors were withdrawing large amounts of bitcoins from exchanges in late October (early November), according to Glassnode.
According to Wu, this criterion is promising, as it shows that investors do not intend to sell and transfer their capital from trading platforms to personal wallets. This reflects the long-term strategy of investors.
The analyst noted that the number of bitcoins withdrawn from an exchange in one day has broken the record of the last five years. He explained:
Strange amount [بیت] Coin picked it up and went into his personal wallet. If we look at the issue from above and want to have an overview of it, we must say that in the 5-year chart, this is the maximum amount of bitcoin withdrawals in a day.
Increasing the number of long-term investors (Hoodlers)
In the digital currency market, investors who hold their bitcoins for a long time are called Hudlers. These people do not sell their bitcoins for a long time (often more than a year).
Prior to the recent uptrend, which pushed Bitcoin to its highest level in years, Wu had said that the number of hoodlers was growing sharply. Some time ago, the number of Bitcoin hoodlers experienced the highest growth since October 2017 (November 96). It is worth mentioning that after breaking the record of Hoodlers in October 2017, the price of Bitcoin in December of the same year (December 1996) reached the highest price in its history, ie $ 20,000. Wu said:
Before the recent growth, the trend of new hoodlers entering the Blockchain [بیت کوین] You were soaring. I repeat, you are soaring, I’m not kidding. Such a jump was last seen in October 2017; One month before Bitcoin enters the 2017 madness phase.
The high number of hoodlers is an important criterion, as it reflects the demand from small investors. The uptrend in bitcoin becomes vulnerable when there is a futures market behind it (the activity of large investors).
Reduce the risk of severe correction
“Bitcoin Expenditure Ratio” (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether investors are withdrawing their profits (sales) or not.
Glassonod data show that a large number of investors withdrew their desired profits last week and do not intend to resell them at this time. This indicates that the likelihood of a sharp decline in prices due to interest withdrawals is low, as investors have already cashed in on their profits despite new buyers.
Wu stressed, citing the three reasons mentioned, that in his view, we will not see a sharp correction in prices after the jump. He wrote on Twitter:
Conclusion: I do not expect drastic reform. I am waiting for the stabilization to start a new upward movement.
In the short term, the derivatives market (option and futures market) remains a threat to Bitcoin’s uptrend. Thus, analysts predict that we will see price stabilization for a while, but drastic correction is unlikely, at least for now.