The S2F model has always been one of the most important bitcoin price forecasting models in recent years. However, the recent fluctuations in the price of this digital currency have led to one of the biggest divergences from this model since the beginning of 2019.
to the the report According to the accumulation model, the price of Bitcoin در in the current period should be in the range of $ 77,900. However, each bitcoin is currently trading in the $ 34,000 range, a long way from its $ 64,829 peak in April.
PlanB, the creator of the stock accumulation model, said in a recent tweet, referring to the current state of the bitcoin price, that the current model-price deviation from the current model and price has reached its highest level in two years. He further stated that the next six months will play a “decisive” role in approving or rejecting this model.
The stock accumulation model is commonly used in markets such as gold and silver. These commodities are commonly referred to as value storage and on paper their value is preserved in the long run due to scarcity and low flow.
The main idea behind this model is that low supply makes this product known as “hard money”. In fact, they are the opposite of the dollar and its high supply; During the Corona outbreak, and especially in March 2020, the US government printed trillions of dollars in support programs and entered the economic cycle. In a similar move in the early 21st century, the country had invested billions of dollars.
Proponents of bitcoin call this digital currency “digital gold” and consider the accumulation-to-supply model to be suitable for predicting its price. Bitcoin is expensive to produce, and since it has a supply limit of 21 million units, it can be described as a rare commodity.
Bitcoin supply is halved every four years by a mechanism called Howing; This means that with each hawing, the number of bitcoins that enter the cycle every ten minutes is halved.
Says Charles Morris, founder of ByteTree, an asset management firm:
Bitcoin has a limited supply that everyone knows about, and this is a great feature. Because supply is clear, demand pushes up and down prices.
Pantera Capital, a hedge fund that focuses on digital currencies, announced in April 2020 that the price of this digital currency would be priced by August, based on the Bitcoin accumulation model. 2021 will reach $ 115,000.
Planby also announced in a post at the same time that the price of Bitcoin will reach $ 288,000 by 2024.
Bainance Academy also writes in a post:
For the basis of this model [انباشت به عرضه], The price of bitcoin is experiencing a significant jump over time; Because the accumulation rate to supply is constantly decreasing.
It is worth noting that this model relies heavily on the assumption that the scarcity of bitcoin should be a price driver, which is not always true. “It simply came to our notice then.
Accumulation model to supply [بیت کوین] Based on the previous two Hawings presented. I cautiously agree that Hawing may double the price of bitcoin; Because the selling pressure of miners is also halved.