Reports & Analysis

September full of bitcoin recession; Is September different?

Historical data show that bitcoin price performance has been sluggish in September; This month, however, may be different from last September.

to the Report Coin Telegraph is a ten-day bitcoin that is trying to cross $ 50,000 and stabilize the price above this range. Sparks of hope were seen in the Bitcoin market on Friday, and the market’s number one digital currency was able to break 50,000. Since then, we have seen it fall again below this area, and the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the range of nearly $ 49,000.

Bitcoin fluctuations have generally been based on price cycles. A general look at the fluctuations of this digital currency can be seen by looking at the bitcoin price patterns in September. Historically, September has been the month in which Bitcoin has not performed so well. Since 2013, the digital currency has risen in just two months in September; One is September 2015 and the other is September 2016. In these months, the maximum bitcoin jump was 6%, which can be considered a month of volatility.

Pete Humiston, chief executive of Krake Intelligence, a research firm at Krake Exchange, commented on the Bitcoin price trend in September:

Historically, Bitcoin recorded its worst performance in September. This three-week digital currency is in the $ 50,000 range. Breaking the price of Bitcoin from this psychologically significant level could rekindle traders’ interest in the market and bring it up to $ 60,000.

The truth is that September 4 has been a goldfish for Bitcoin since last September 5; This means that this month is the month of the Bitcoin price slump. On the other hand, after the announcement of the purchase of $ 1.5 billion in bitcoin by Tesla and the acceptance of this digital currency as a method of payment, and consequently, the growth of the price of bitcoin, $ 50,000 is one of the most important resistances to the king of currencies. Has become digital. In early September, Bitcoin managed to cross $ 50,000, but this growth did not last long.

Hunain Naseer, Senior Analyst at OKEx Exchange Research, says:

Given the current market conditions, bitcoin trying to be below $ 50,000 is like a war that buyers must win in order to expect $ 60,000. Most likely, the price will go from $ 50,000 to $ 60,000 much faster than the price from $ 40,000 to $ 50,000.

Less deviation of the accumulation model to supply

Accumulation model to supply Bitcoin price
Accumulation Bitcoin price forecast model to be released

The S2F model, developed by PlanB, has always been one of the most accurate bitcoin price forecasting models. This model is based on the amount of bitcoin entering the cycle in a certain interval. Therefore, the price of bitcoin should have crossed $ 100,000 and should now be close to $ 105,000.

However, the price of Bitcoin in late July (early August) somewhat revived its deviation from the model forecast. It should not be forgotten that this is not the first time that the price of Bitcoin has deviated from the forecast of the accumulation model. In late October 2018, we saw a deviation from this model for the first time. This deviation lasted for 7 months, and it was in mid-June 2019 that the price returned to the planned path of the Planby model. The current deviation has been seen in the market for three months. It is worth noting that the supply accumulation model predicts that bitcoin will fluctuate at a relatively constant rate from the beginning of the third quarter of this year until the end of the year.

Nasir goes on to compare current market prices and accumulation model forecasts:

Given the current sentiment in the market and the long-term fundamental factors of Bitcoin, it is not far-fetched that the price of this digital currency will reach $ 100,000 by December; Especially since October (November) and November (November) have been the months in which bitcoin performance has been very positive. Conditions in these months are such that one can easily expect to reach $ 100,000 by mid-December, and it will most likely happen after this correction date.

Jake Wujastyk, chief executive of TrendSpider Analysis, said in an interview:

Based on the weekly fluctuations from the floor of March 2020 (March 98) to the candle of October 2020 (November 99) and assuming similar fluctuations to the floor of June 2021 (June 1400), the price of $ 100,000 can be expected by the end of this year.

Although the accumulation-supply model has so far been successful in forecasting the price of Bitcoin, it should not be forgotten that all indicators and forecasting models have limitations. “The digital currency market outlook is bigger,” he said.

Reaching $ 100,000 in 4 months will require a large amount of capital to enter the market. Although this is not impossible, it does not seem likely now that investors’ interest in the current situation has been drawn to the market for instruments such as Ether, Cardano and Solana.

Do pennies prevent $ 100,000 bitcoins?

As we said before, the price of Bitcoin has not been very successful in reaching $ 50,000, but it is still trying to reach this level. At the same time, altcoins such as Ether, Cardano, and Solana were able to generate significant profits for their investors.

Over the past week, the price of bitcoin has fluctuated around 7%. Solana, Ether and Cardano, on the other hand, recorded 74%, 27% and 16% growth, respectively. Meanwhile, Solana and Cardano managed to break their previous peaks.

The sharp rise in the price of altcoins has caused the bitcoin dominance index in the market to fall even below 40%. Bitcoin dominance of the market is currently estimated at 39.5%. This is the same level we saw in June 2018. Johnny Lyu, CEO of KuCoin Exchange, said in an interview:

Understanding how Ether and other quinces compete with Bitcoin is important for new investors. On the other hand, it is important to know how those who have been in the market for a long time behave. Without the growth and flourishing of coins, the general acceptance of digital currencies will not be possible. Many market participants believe that in the current market conditions, the multiplication of the value of coins is more likely.

As an example, we can mention the price of Solana, which has grown more than 100 times since the beginning of this year. Even an optimistic person like Planby, with the accumulation model on offer, has a $ 100,000 price forecast for Bitcoin by the end of the year, which ultimately shows a threefold increase over the beginning of the year. Such a difference in profits could make investors more interested in coins as an investment tool.

Despite all this, institutional investors’ attitudes toward bitcoin have become more positive than in June and July. Micro Strategy bought Bitcoin again two weeks ago and added $ 177 million of this digital currency to its reserves. The company currently has $ 105,085 worth of bitcoins valued at $ 5.2 billion, or 0.5 percent of the maximum supply of 21 million units of bitcoins.

Even Citigroup, one of the biggest names in the financial sector, has its eye on bitcoin futures trading in the CME‌ market. It is worth noting that CME is the largest derivatives trading market in the world. According to the latest reports, Citigroup is awaiting approval from regulators to trade bitcoin derivatives.

In another part of his talk, Live spoke about how the digital currency market is growing and its impact on the resurgence of financial institutions and institutional investors in the industry. He said about this:

The slow and steady recovery of institutional investors’ interest in digital currencies is already evident. Positive news about investing [شرکت] SpaceX on Bitcoin, the Ethereum update in August, and the Cardano update this month all offset the downturn in May and June and boosted market participants’ confidence in further growth.

According to Voestics, given the fluctuations in bitcoin in recent months, it can be said that a lot of capital has entered the market, which shows that institutional investors have played a role in these fluctuations. For all that, September 2021 may be a different month for Bitcoin, and it could stand out from the rest of September.


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