The rapid correction of the Bitcoin price below $ 17,000 support as of this writing has met analysts’ expectations, as most market participants will find it difficult to overcome the historical price ceiling.
To Report CoinTelgraf, the price of Bitcoin today has fallen from about $ 18,700 to $ 16,300, or more than 10 percent. This pullback (pullback) to lower levels occurred after the price moved to around $ 19,500.
At the same time, the large OKEx exchange has announced that it has reactivated users’ withdrawals. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant Analytics, also emphasized the need to increase the outflow of assets from the OKEx exchange to wallets and other exchanges. He wrote in his latest Twitter update:
The outflow of bitcoins from OKEx to other exchanges in the current situation has reached 493 bitcoins.
Another factor driving down prices is the introduction of Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase. Regarding recent rumors that the United States intends to impose new regulations on its wallets, he said:
If enforced, the regulations could have far-reaching negative consequences for the United States. In the early days of the Internet, there were groups such as telephone companies that demanded such regulatory rules. Thank God they were not successful in this.
On the other hand data They suggest that the cascading liquidation of many leveraged buying positions was the driving force behind these widespread reforms. Before the price retreated from its historic high, bitcoin futures contracts reached a new record and the derivatives market became too hot with buyers. These caused the market to fluctuate in only one direction. A combination of these two factors has also led to a rapid decline in the price of bitcoin along with an increase in futures. Like the fall in the price of Bitcoin on March 12 to $ 4,000, more than $ 1 billion in futures have been liquidated. Skew data, for example, show that the volume of capital transfers at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange was $ 1.8 billion, the highest ever.
With the onset of price declines, inflows to exchanges have increased. This indicates that whales or investors with high net worth have sold heavily in major exchanges, including Coin Base. Eventually, the order list of the big exchanges quickly disappeared, and we saw a sharp and rapid price correction. We now look at this decline from the point of view of technical analysis.
In weekly timeframes, both technical and fundamental factors reinforce the bullish theory of the market. Network stiffness is likely to jump 7.3 percent over the next three days; Because we are seeing an increase in network hash rates. Also, due to the fact that the price has quickly reached the historical ceiling (ATH), it needs to enter the consolidation phase and stabilize the footprint of the movement, before breaking its greatest resistance.
If we look at price movements in this timeframe according to Elliott’s wave theory, it seems that the third wave of the strong price uptrend, which started from its $ 4,000 floor and has continued so far, is in the resistance range of 18,470 to 18 , $ 770.
According to the image, the lower limit of this level is 161.8% Fibonucci extension (Fibonucci extension) and the upper limit of 161.8% Fibonucci Projection is the first and second wave of this powerful uptrend. Of course, in drawing Fibonacci we have omitted an extension of two candles marked with a red arrow (due to unreasonable fluctuations).
According to this hypothesis, we expect the price to correct (consolidate) in the next 35 days in the fourth wave and then the price to attack higher levels in the fifth wave. The end of this wave can also extend to the resistance area of $ 21,110 to $ 21,400. Of course, due to the price action (price action), there is a possibility that this wave will expand or so-called extend to higher levels. The correction in the fourth wave may lower the price to the support area of $ 15,400 to $ 15,770 and below it to $ 14,160.
By referring to the four-hour time frame, if we pay attention to the price movements (price action), we will see the Three Drive pattern. This pattern, first drawn by Robert Preacher, is actually a very rare pattern, but it can be useful in trading. Fibonacci ratios of this pattern are observed in three drives or motion waves (marked with red lines). Given that the recent candle in this timeframe has covered the beginning of this pattern (Engulf), in the first short-term price move, we expect it to rise to $ 18,250 and above it to $ 18,800 Had.
Then, seeing the signs of relapse, there is a possibility of falling to the support area mentioned above. If the price jumps in this area after these moves, it can be expected to rise again and in case of violation of this support area, it may fall to $ 14,160. These possible movements are shown in the figure.
The final suggestion is to control your risk in the trades by optimally adjusting the loss limit, and manage your capital by entering and exiting a step in support and resistance. If you do not have enough knowledge to trade, refrain from entering trades and gradually learn this knowledge by referring to the market analysis training section. This analysis should not be considered as a signal to buy or sell.