Reports & Analysis

Do we have to wait for a broad downward trend like in 2018? The data respond


While Bitcoin is trading at 35% below its all-time high, the data show that, unlike in 2018, long-term investors have not played an active role in this massive decline.

to the Report Coin Telegraph, data provided by Glasnood show that the recent bitcoin reform rate may not be as worrying as in 2018.

Investors who have held their bitcoins for more than a year have shown less interest in cashing their investments than those who have held their digital currencies for three to six months, according to Blockchain. The dataset covers the Bitcoin correction period from $ 65,000 on April 14 to about $ 44,000 on Monday, August 9.

Do we have to wait for a broad downward trend like in 2018?  The data respond
Graph of the history of spent Bitcoin transactions

On the other hand, all investment groups have contributed to the fall in 2018 prices from $ 19,891 to $ 3,128.

Although most older bitcoin investors did not decide to maintain their 275% annual profit even after a 35% correction, Glasnod data points to a strong ‘hold’ behavior that may keep Bitcoin from getting caught up in a similar event of mass sales. Save the year 2018.

Glasnod says in this regard:

Despite the strong uptrend and the rise in the price of bitcoin to $ 45,000, the bitcoin market has not yet seen a significant increase in the spending of old currencies (currencies that have been held for more than a year). This is very different from the declining market in 2018, where older investors were withdrawing liquidity in most of the correctional price increases.

The fall of 2018 was due to sales due to fear

Excessive price growth due to the excitement of the initial public offering of digital currencies (ICO) was the main reason for the market collapse in 2018. Startups raised billions of dollars to build blockchain-based platforms, but in the end most of them were never offered or turned out to be scams.

When the bubble burst, the Bitcoin market value fell from $ 700 billion in January 2018 to $ 102 billion in December 2018. As a result, Bitcoin, one of the currency of choice for startup financing, fell 85.27 percent from its all-time high of $ 19,891.

Do we have to wait for a broad downward trend like in 2018?  The data respond
Bitcoin performance in the 2018 bubble and the price fall after that

But the rise in bitcoin prices in 2021 was macroeconomic, as investors sought safe haven from weak central bank policies around the world. As a result, central bank measures to protect the economy from the effects of the corona epidemic pushed global debt to more than $ 281 trillion last year.

This was equivalent to 355% of the GDP of all countries in the world. According to the International Finance Institution, the borrowing rate is expected to increase by another $ 10 trillion in 2021.

Do we have to wait for a broad downward trend like in 2018?  The data respond
Global Debt Rate Chart

Anthony Pompliano, a partner at Pomp Investments, wrote in a note to his clients:

People have little wealth and a lot of debt. The devaluation of Fiat currencies has made everything more expensive.

He added:

Bitcoin promises us that we will start a new era with healthy money. This currency is out of the system [دولتی] And no one controls it. People can once again have their own ways of achieving financial freedom. This money does not lose its value over time. In fact, purchasing power will increase.

Will short-term investors return?

The recent rise in the price of bitcoin from below $ 30,000 to above $ 45,000 coincided with a slight increase in the number of investors who have bought bitcoin over the past three to six months.

Do we have to wait for a broad downward trend like in 2018?  The data respond
Return on unspent bitcoin transactions

On July 19, when bitcoin fluctuated close to $ 30,000, the net return on unspent bitcoin transactions for 12.6 million investors was 12.84%. This amount increased to 13.44% yesterday. Bitcoin, which traded at $ 45,130 yesterday, showed that novice investors are gaining strength.

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