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Bitcoin crossing over $ 48,000; Will the market rise in October this year as well?


On the first day of October, the price of Bitcoin crossed $ 48,000 and peaked in the last two weeks. The current situation is very similar to the market situation before the start of the recent uptrend in October (October) last year, but is the market going up in October (October) this year as well as last year?

to the Report The price of bitcoin has risen significantly, despite the fact that investors in traditional financial markets are less risky these days and more focused on maintaining the value of their capital. The jump in bitcoin has boosted investors’ hopes for further price growth in October.

At the time of writing, each bitcoin is trading at about $ 47,700, and the price has risen 8.7 percent in the last 24 hours. The overall market situation has been positive and the prices of the major currencies of smart contract-based networks such as VeChain, Tezos and Elrond have risen by more than 8%. Ethereum is currently trading at around $ 3,280, up 8.8% in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin crossing over $ 48,000;  Will the market rise in October this year as well?
Bitcoin Price Chart (1-Day Bitcoin / Dollar Market View)

The E-mini S & P500 medium-term futures are losing ground, which indicates a decline in the S & P500 index. E-minis are electronic futures contracts that are worth as much as a fraction of standard stock futures. The dollar index, which compares the price of the US dollar with other major Fiat currencies in the world, was slightly lower than the 12-month high of 94.50 on Thursday.

Reducing concerns about the possibility of digital currency markets being restricted by US lawmakers seems to have kept bitcoin safe from the instability of traditional financial markets. On Thursday, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve did not want to ban digital currencies and stable coins. A day before Powell raised the issue in Congress, Gary Gensler, chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, reiterated his support for Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Emotions in the digital currency market seem to be quite upward. Many analysts refer to October as October (Uptober); A slang term that has recently become popular and refers to traders waiting for the market to rise this month.

As the market history shows, October is a seasonal uptrend, and the stability of bitcoin coincides with the stock market crash and the widespread ban on digital currency-related businesses in China, indicating the digital currency’s ineffectiveness and flexibility in the face of negative news. We have already seen the same thing just before the start of the recent uptrend from $ 10,000 in September and October 2020 (September and October 99).

Last year, Bitcoin fluctuated between $ 10,000 and $ 11,000 in a similar situation this year, while the S & P500 index experienced a significant decline. At the time, a number of negative news items, such as the hacking of the KuCoin exchange and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s allegations against BitMEX, had affected the digital currency market. However, the market was bullish for 6 months and the price of Bitcoin reached its historic high of $ 64,800.

Bitcoin crossing over $ 48,000;  Will the market rise in October this year as well?
Bitcoin price comparison and S & P500 index in the last four months of 2020

We have to wait and see if history repeats itself. Rising signs of inflation around the world and declining realized or adjusted interest rates on Treasury bills support the formation of a new uptrend in the market, however, a slight easing by the US Federal Reserve could slow the uptrend. Quantitative easing is a monetary policy in which the central bank buys securities with the aim of mobilizing financial markets.

The US Federal Reserve announced last month that the cut in financial facilities will begin in the last three months of this year and may continue until mid-2022, provided there is no new economic shock.

Fears of a faster cut by the Federal Reserve may affect the market. In general, if the Personal Consumer Price Index (PCE) data to be released today is contrary to expectations, prices may come under downward pressure. It should be noted that the personal consumption cost index only calculates changes in the value of goods and services and does not include fluctuations in food and fuel prices.

According to CNBC, the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, which depends on the personal consumption expenditure index, may show an adjustment in August after rising 3.6 percent year on year in June and July (July). August) be.

“TD Securities analyst said:

It seems that the personal consumption expenditure index in August (August) has increased more than the consumer price index (CPI), which is estimated at 0.26 vs. 0.10 and with [رشد] The Consumer Price Index (PPI) has strengthened. The annual change is likely to remain at 3.6 percent.

Recent data show that the EU’s annual inflation increased by 3.5% in September and reached its highest level since September 2008 (September 87).

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